Foundations of Politics · Prof. Agostinis · lecture 9 · Gallagher in Caramani

Poli-07: Elections & Referendums

First written test territory (the last stop)~35 min with interactivessame votes, different winners: see it happen
A whimsical brass machine swallowing paper ballots through a funnel and dispensing small chairs on a conveyor, one rose ballot

In this lesson

Before you start, three bricks from earlier

The link, and the puzzle

Elections are the main mechanism by which people express how they want to be governed: the wire connecting the room full of citizens to the handful who decide. Essential and universal for democracies, yes. But here is the lecture's opening puzzle, planted deliberately: non-democratic regimes hold elections too, and not carelessly, but at great expense. Hold the puzzle; section 6 pays it off.

Between the vote cast and the seat filled stands a machine: electoral rules structure how votes are cast and how they convert into seats and offices. The machine is never neutral. It shapes people's choices before the vote (why waste a ballot on a hopeless third party?) and transforms them after it. Same voters, different machine, different parliament: you are about to watch it happen.

Who gets a ballot: the franchise story

First dial on the machine: who may feed it. The franchise widened over two centuries, and the sequence is exam material:

The translation machine, live

An imaginary country, one single election, four parties: Rose 39.4%, Blue 33.9%, Amber 20.7%, Green 6%. The votes are frozen. Only the machine changes.

Same votes, two machines

10 seats to fill · FPTP = ten single-member districts, most votes in each wins · PR = one national constituency, seats proportional

Rose 39.4%Blue 33.9%Amber 20.7%Green 6.0%
FPTP seats
PR seats
0%

Read the damage report. Under FPTP (first past the post), Rose turns 39% of votes into 60% of seats: it wins many districts narrowly, and a district won by one vote pays the same as a landslide. Amber's fifth of the country, spread thin, collects one seat; Green's voters, everywhere and never first, get nothing at all. Under PR the same ballots produce a parliament that looks like the electorate, and no one holds a majority: welcome to coalition country (Poli-09). Now slide the threshold past 6% and watch the machine quietly delete Green even under PR: thresholds are the anti-fragmentation valve, and a bar of 3 to 5% is typical.

The course's fuller menu, for naming purposes: single-member systems include FPTP, the alternative vote (rank candidates), and two-round systems (France: top two fight a runoff). Multi-member PR comes as one national constituency (Israel, Netherlands) or many districts (Spain, Brazil), via list systems or mixed systems (Germany, Italy). And three dials differentiate PR machines: district magnitude (seats per district: bigger = more proportional), intra-party choice (closed lists: the party orders candidates; open lists: you pick your favorite), and the threshold you just played with.

What the machine does to politics

Bypassing the machine: referendums

Sometimes the people vote on the issue itself: a referendum, "a mass electorate votes on some public issue" (Butler and Ranney), a direct-democracy tool inside representative democracy. Three typologies to memorize, each a yes/no pair:

By obligationMandatory (the constitution requires one, e.g. for amendments) vs optional.
By triggerPopular initiative (citizens collect signatures: 50,000-100,000 in Switzerland; in Italy 500,000 signatures, or 5 regional councils, or a fifth of a chamber) vs institutional initiative (governments or parliaments call it).
By effectDecision-promoting (rare: creates new policy) vs decision-controlling (checks a decision already made: abrogative or rejective, Italy's specialty).

And the guard-rail, exam-quotable: to avoid the risk of majoritarianism (50%+1 steamrolling minority rights on a single emotional afternoon), access to referendums is deliberately restricted: signature thresholds, limited sources, judicial review of admissibility. Direct democracy is kept on a leash by design, and the course wants you to say why.

Voting in the locked room

Now the opening puzzle. Why does the locked room from Poli-04 bother with ballots? Because elections serve autocrats: they gather information, distribute spoils, split oppositions, refresh legitimacy paint. Levitsky and Way's competitive authoritarianism returns here with full force: formal democratic institutions are genuinely the main route to power, and the incumbent's abuse of the state keeps the field tilted beyond fairness.

So should a citizen of such a regime vote at all, knowing the count is stacked and turnout may flatter the regime? The course's careful answer, built from justice-based, epistemic, and procedural theories of voting's value: yes, usually, because authoritarian elections retain a residual democratic value. Voting reasserts the right to choose representatives, reaffirms inter-elite competition as a principle, and reminds elites they can be held to account; the same democratic principles that justify voting there oblige choosing the most democratic alternative on offer. The vote as a message in a bottle: the procedure is adulterated, and keeping its remnants alive is precisely the point.

Name that system

The machine-recognition reflex the MCQs test:

Cheat sheet

Everything this lesson asks you to remember

Electionsthe people-to-power link; rules structure casting AND conversion of votes into seats
Franchise storygentry → working men (XIX) → women (post WWII) → age down; compulsory voting: Australia, Belgium, (Chile)
Single-member familyFPTP · alternative vote · two-round systems (France)
PR familynational or multi-district lists · mixed systems (Germany, Italy)
Three PR dialsdistrict magnitude · open vs closed lists · threshold (3-5% typical)
Duverger's lawFPTP → two-party systems (mechanical + psychological effects); PR → multi-party
Master trade-offrepresentativeness vs governability; no free lunch
Referendum typologiesmandatory/optional · popular/institutional initiative · decision-promoting/controlling; access restricted to curb majoritarianism
Italy's popular initiative500,000 signatures, or 5 regional councils, or 1/5 of a chamber; abrogative specialty
Authoritarian electionsserve the regime, yet retain residual democratic value; vote for the most democratic alternative

One pile of ballots, two machines, opposite parliaments. Whoever designs the machine designs the game.

Exam-style quiz

score: 0

Six questions in the written test's style.