Foundations of Politics · Prof. Agostinis · lecture 19 · van der Meer; Valgarðsson et al. 2025

Poli-13: Political Trust

Second written test territory (the final lecture)~35 min with interactivescrisis or myth: the data decides
An inspector with a lantern examining the arch beneath a great stone bridge at dusk, one rose lantern glow

In this lesson

Before you start, three bricks from earlier

Driving over someone else's bridge

Every morning you drive over a bridge you did not build, could not inspect, and cannot see under. Crossing anyway is trust. The course's definition: political trust is citizens' support for political institutions (government, parliament) in the face of uncertainty about, or vulnerability to, their actions. It is relational: A trusts B to do X: a citizen trusts an institution with something, it links "citizens" to "institutions", and it can be decomposed into four checks, the inspector's list:

Skeptic vs cynic

Here is the look-alike pair Poli-00 promised, and it decides real exam points. The absence of trust is not distrust:

Skepticism: suspending judgment, awaiting more information. The inspector under the bridge with a lantern: checking before crossing. A healthy democratic attitude.
Cynicism: assuming the worst on principle: institutions are inherently incompetent and selfish, so why look, why vote, why cross any bridge at all. The actual danger: full disengagement.

The course's line to keep: democracy does not require blind trust; it requires an active, vigilant citizenry with a healthy skepticism of government. Almond and Verba's civic culture said the same with different words: engaged AND willing to delegate. The enemy is not doubt; it is the certainty that doubt is pointless.

The five floors of support

Political support is not one feeling but a tower, from diffuse to specific, and knowing the floors tells you which cracks matter:

1. Political communityNational identity: belonging to the "we" at all. Most diffuse.
2. Regime principlesSupport for democracy as a value.
3. Regime performanceSatisfaction with how democracy is working here, now.
4. Regime institutionsPOLITICAL TRUST lives here: parliament, government, parties, courts.
5. OfficeholdersThe current incumbents. Most specific, most volatile.

Two consequences the exam likes. First, floors move independently: high support for democratic principles can coexist with low trust in institutions, producing the "critical citizen" (Inglehart, Norris): pro-democracy, anti-how-it-is-run. Second, not all declines are equally dangerous: losing faith in incumbents is Tuesday; losing satisfaction with performance is a warning; losing support for democratic principles is the fire alarm.

Two families of institutions, live

The lecture's key modern finding splits floor 4 in two:

Trust, 1960s to today: two diverging lines

Stylized global pattern from the course's evidence · click each family

time → trust → representative: parliament, government, parties implementing: courts, police, civil service

The politicians' line and the bridge engineers' line have parted ways.

Crisis or myth: the debate and the world tour

Scholars split into two camps, names attached. The decline camp: Dalton (declining trust has spread across almost all advanced industrial democracies since the 1960s-70s), Citrin and Stoker (most countries show lost confidence in legislatures). The trendless-fluctuations camp: Norris (the "crisis myth" exaggerates disaffection; trust waxes and wanes), van der Meer ("the last few decades are characterized by trendless fluctuations in most countries").

The regional tour, MCQ fuel throughout: the US fell off a cliff 1958-1980 (over 70% to under 30%), wild swings since, historic lows after 2016. The Nordics stay highest among established democracies (long democratic tradition, low corruption). Southern Europe lost over 25 points after the 2007 recession (Greece, Spain), on top of authoritarian and clientelist legacies: Italy's trust collapsed in the 1990s with Tangentopoli and the party system's implosion, fertile ground for populism since. Central and Eastern Europe had a post-1989 honeymoon, then decline to the EU's lowest levels. Latin America trended up 1995-2011. And the puzzle the course flags with a raised eyebrow: illiberal regimes report the highest trust on earth (China, Singapore, Qatar), where reported trust, performance legitimacy, and the safety of answering surveys all tangle together.

What builds and burns trust

Consequences, and the resolution

Three versions of the crisis narrative, in descending drama: regime survival ("a democratic system cannot survive without the support of a majority", Miller: the most extreme claim), systemic change (low trust forces far-reaching change within representative democracy: Italy's 1990s party-system implosion, France's move to the Fifth Republic, New Zealand switching from majoritarian to PR), and the canary in the coal mine (Norris: low trust is a warning light of democratic malaise, not itself the engine of collapse). What the data does establish: declining trust shifts preferences: citizens who trust less want smaller government and support less redistribution and fewer policies benefiting minorities. Low trust also travels with populist surges (Trump, Milei, Bukele, M5S, Podemos all campaigned on distrust), calls for direct democracy and "strong leaders", and falling turnout; in Hungary and Poland it opened doors to illiberal "strong governance". High trust, in the Nordics, traveled with COVID compliance and effective government.

Then the resolution the course ends on: Valgarðsson et al. 2025, the largest study ever run: 3,377 surveys, 143 countries, 1958-2019. The answer depends on three words:

Conclusion, quotable whole: the decline in trust in representative institutions is real, even if not uniform. The crisis is neither myth nor apocalypse; it is specific, and now you can say exactly where it lives. And the course's final question, a fitting last line for the whole semester: can institutions reform fast enough to keep their legitimacy?

Sort the diagnoses

Cheat sheet

Everything this lesson asks you to remember

Political trustcitizens' support for political institutions under uncertainty/vulnerability; relational (A trusts B to do X)
Four checkscompetence · care · accountability · reliability
Skeptic vs cynicsuspend judgment (healthy) vs assume the worst and disengage (the danger); democracy needs vigilant skeptics
Five floorscommunity → principles → performance → institutions (= trust) → officeholders; principles-decline is the alarm
Critical citizenhigh support for democratic principles + low institutional trust (Inglehart, Norris)
Key findingrepresentative institutions declining · implementing institutions stable/rising
The debatedecline camp (Dalton; Citrin & Stoker) vs trendless fluctuations (Norris; van der Meer)
Causescorruption (strongest, universal) · procedural fairness (transparency cuts both ways) · economy (subjective; explains fluctuations) · winner-loser gap (wider in majoritarian) · socialization (education×corruption, migrants, postmaterialism)
Consequencessmaller-government preferences, less redistribution; populism, direct-democracy calls, lower turnout; three narratives (survival / systemic change / canary)
Valgarðsson 20253,377 surveys, 143 countries: decline is real but depends on WHAT (representative), WHERE, WHEN

Inspect the bridge, keep crossing, and worry precisely: about the politicians' arch, not the engineers'.

Exam-style quiz

score: 0

Six questions in the written test's style.